Kalshi traders lift SpaceX Starship 12 launch odds to 70% after T-40 scrub
Kalshi traders on Thursday afternoon priced SpaceX's 12th Starship V3 launch attempt at a 70% probability of occurring before May 22, ticking up from Wednesday's 67% reading. The revision followed SpaceX's scrub of Thursday's initial attempt at T-40 seconds. The 90-minute launch window for the second try opened at 6:30 pm Eastern. The contract covers whether the launch occurs by the specified date, reflecting trader confidence after the near-miss. Kalshi's Starship 12 market offers one of the few regulated prediction-market exposures to a live spaceflight timeline. SpaceX has not announced a new target if Thursday's second attempt also scrubs.
Kalshi is now running three concurrent SpaceX-linked contracts — Starship 12 launch timing, a Tesla-SpaceX merger, and pre-IPO valuation — while Polymarket fields a competing SpaceX valuation market through its Nasdaq Private Market partnership. Any pricing inconsistency across these four markets will be arbitraged by institutional flow, pressuring Kalshi's spreads.
Joins Kalshi's existing Tesla-SpaceX merger and Polymarket's competing SpaceX pre-IPO valuation contracts, making SpaceX the most heavily covered private company across both platforms this week.