Kalshi and Polymarket both report 96% plus midterm favorite hit rates
Kalshi reported that favorites won 479 of 487 resolved midterm races, a 96.4% hit rate. Texas alone accounted for half of its misses. Polymarket separately reported favorites won 98.4% of settled U.S. midterm markets, with 419 wins and seven losses, plus 78 markets still unsettled. The tallies arrive as state attorneys general in Ohio and Tennessee argue event contracts amplify sentiment rather than predict outcomes.
The accuracy figures give prediction market operators their best empirical defense yet against state gambling lawsuits. Attorneys general in Ohio and Tennessee have argued event contracts amplify sentiment rather than predict outcomes; these hit rates weaken that claim ahead of likely 2027 proceedings. Senators Warren and Curtis have already demanded internal trading data under bipartisan deadline, so platform credibility is under direct congressional scrutiny.
Record midterm volume means millions of retail users encountered these prices through media partnerships, exposing more capital than any prior cycle. A clean call dampens the regulatory threat; a miss would deepen the credibility crisis state enforcers already previewed. The platforms now hold demonstrated forecasting records to counter pressure.