Kalshi's billion-dollar rise shows what iPredict couldn't achieve in NZ
Columnist Eric Crampton contrasts the growth of US-based prediction market Kalshi with the now-defunct New Zealand platform iPredict, which he describes as a very small, very limited academic enterprise. The article is published in the New Zealand Herald.
iPredict's closure in New Zealand after regulatory pressure remains a cautionary tale for prediction market operators in smaller jurisdictions; Crampton's comparison suggests regulatory and market-structure differences between the US and NZ may explain divergent outcomes.
Kalshi now has Moomoo's 29 million-user retail channel, three dedicated institutional market-making desks from DRW, Wintermute, and IMC, and a billion-dollar valuation narrative — a scale that makes iPredict's academic-era constraints in New Zealand look structurally rather than strategically determined.