Kalshi predicts upwards of $10 billion in 2028 presidential contest volume
Kalshi told the Washington Reporter it expects upwards of $10 billion in trading volume for the 2028 presidential contests. The prediction market has already hit $800 million in political trading, surpassing its total 2024 election cycle volume. Both projections come ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, during a period of rapid growth for the company's event-contract business. Kalshi is seeking to capitalize on surging mainstream and political interest in regulated prediction markets.
The $10 billion projection frames Kalshi's political vertical as a standalone revenue pillar, not a novelty sideline. That matters because political event contracts sit in contested legal territory across multiple states. Kalshi hits anywhere near that figure, it becomes the largest regulated venue for election betting worldwide. State attorneys general already investigating event contracts gain a bigger target. The CBS News partnership puts Kalshi's pricing before mainstream voters who have never seen a regulated prediction market, and first impressions will shape whether lawmakers treat these products as information markets or gambling venues.
FanDuel's market-making role on sports contracts shows Kalshi depends on partner liquidity it does not fully control. A political scandal or major pricing distortion during high-volume November trading would give opponents concrete ammunition. Kalshi is betting that transparency tools and broadcast exposure build enough public familiarity to raise the political cost of enforcement before the next cease-and-desist letter lands.
Kalshi is deepening its electoral footprint across multiple fronts, from executive political contributions in Texas to transparency tools for midterm contracts and broadcast partnerships with CBS News.