JPMorgan memo warns 320,000 bankers to be cautious on Kalshi and Polymarket
JPMorgan circulated an internal red-flag memo on May 20, 2026, warning its roughly 320,000 employees to be cautious when trading on prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket. The notice specifically flags insider trading risks as event contracts expand into categories touching publicly traded companies and macroeconomic data. The memo singles out both platforms by name and reflects deepening institutional scrutiny of bank staff activity on event-contract venues. The warning follows a separate JPMorgan policy shift just ten days earlier that let employees trade prediction markets without pre-clearance, pairing new freedom with explicit caution. Mainstream financial infrastructure interest in the sector is growing: Robinhood now offers direct Kalshi event contract access to retail customers, and Intercontinental Exchange is active in the space.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley must now choose between matching JPMorgan's permissive stance or imposing stricter blocks, with employee trading policies likely settled before year-end bonus season.
Becomes the second major JPMorgan employee-policy move in two weeks, after an earlier memo permitting prediction-market trading without pre-clearance, as the bank simultaneously opens and cautions the door on event-contract participation.