Brock Purdy overtakes Josh Allen as NFL MVP favorite on Kalshi after Patriots upset
Kalshi's NFL MVP market has shifted after the Buffalo Bills' loss to the New England Patriots. Josh Allen is no longer the favorite. Brock Purdy has moved into the top spot, and by October 6 the two quarterbacks were tied at 19% each. Patrick Mahomes sits third at 11% and Dak Prescott fourth at 7%. The moves reflect live trading on the regulated prediction market platform following Week 4 results. Brock Purdy now holds top position. Josh Allen no longer leads. Patrick Mahomes sits third. Dak Prescott follows. Live trading on the regulated platform drove the shift. Kalshi traders reacted to the Bills' loss.
This price move is a sentiment signal, not a trading opportunity. The MVP contract lacks the liquidity or edge to absorb serious size. Kalshi's weekly percentage posts mirror widely available sportsbook odds. Traders comparing fills will route volume to venues with deeper order books. Needham data shows Kalshi's single-game pricing edge had already compressed by Week 3. Polymarket's established pools and Novig's pace pull sharp traders elsewhere.
FanDuel's market-maker partnership with Kalshi looks defensive: keep users inside Kalshi's interface while the sportsbook rebuilds its own event-contract stack. DraftKings' stock sits at multiyear lows under the same pressure. If combo pricing keeps improving at rival venues, Kalshi's 76% NFL volume share becomes vulnerable. The platform with superior odds by mid-season could flip the numbers. The MVP top spot is a headline, not a market.