House bill would ban wildfire event contracts on prediction markets
A Washington State congressman introduced H.R. 10109 in the 119th Congress to amend the Commodity Exchange Act and bar prediction-market platforms from offering event contracts tied to wildfires. The bill targets contracts on the occurrence, severity, or location of wildfire events. It has one sponsor. The legislation comes as some platforms have explored catastrophe and climate-related event markets and after Nevada senators pushed the CFTC to ban similar contracts.
For Polymarket and Kalshi, the bill turns wildfire contracts into the most electorally sensitive product in their catalogs. Congress is now aligned with state pressure: Nevada senators pushed the CFTC on the same issue days earlier. The bill's passage would force platforms to delist wildfire markets entirely, not just geofence them.
Traders holding active contracts face forced unwinds or voiding if the ban lands mid-cycle. Wildfire season recurs annually, so political pressure on this vertical will resurface every summer. The first platform to suspend under that pressure will establish the default industry response. Each new congressional voice raises the cost of keeping catastrophe markets open.