Gaming industry poll finds 75% of Americans equate prediction markets with sports betting
A gaming industry poll found that 75% of Americans view buying and selling sports-related event contracts on prediction markets as equivalent to using a sportsbook to bet on sports. The survey was reported by Semafor on Friday, November 13, 2026. The finding highlights public perception challenges for prediction market platforms offering sports contracts as they seek to distinguish event-based trading from traditional gambling.
This perception gap threatens the regulatory strategy that Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood have built their sports-contract businesses on. Platforms have argued event contracts are financial instruments, not gambling, to secure CFTC registration and avoid state gaming licenses. If legislators and courts adopt this poll's framing, that federal shield weakens. The New York ruling against Novig already accepted the gambling classification.
State attorneys general in Ohio, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Arkansas are pressing similar arguments. Platforms now face a dual fight: defend the financial-instrument label in court while shifting public opinion before more states copy New York's blueprint. The first major platform forced to apply for state gaming licenses will see its national model collapse into fifty separate approval processes.
The perception problem deepens a legal stack that already includes a New York judge blocking Novig, felony charges against Kalshi's founders in Utah, and CFTC preemption suits in Arkansas, forcing platforms to fight on federal, state, and public-opinion fronts simultaneously.