Dual investor says DraftKings validates Kalshi's prediction market while trying to capture it
Joel Shulman, founder of ERShares and portfolio manager of the XOVR ETF, says DraftKings' $11 billion prediction-market push validates rival Kalshi's business model even as DraftKings tries to capture that market. Shulman holds stakes in both companies. The dual investment gives him a unique view on how the two platforms compete and validate each other in the growing event-contracts space. He offered no additional deal terms or strategic details.
Shulman's framing reframes competition as mutual validation: DraftKings' $11 billion bet signals that event contracts are a real asset class, which benefits Kalshi's credibility with traders and regulators alike. That narrative helps Kalshi recruit users who might otherwise wait for a larger brand. Yet the same validation invites more entrants, compressing Kalshi's first-mover window before DraftKings scales.
The dual-investor angle also exposes a tension: Shulman profits whether Kalshi thrives or DraftKings absorbs its market. For traders choosing platforms, the signal is muddier than a pure competitor's endorsement. Kalshi must now convert that borrowed credibility into concrete user growth before DraftKings' sportsbook audience matures into event-contract traders.
The ERShares positioning follows Kalshi's widening legal exposure in New York and other states, where federal preemption is crumbling market by market after the latest attorney general suit.