Kalshi severs ties with Donald Trump Jr. after Democratic midterm sweep
Kalshi is ending its relationship with Donald Trump Jr. following a Democratic sweep in the 2026 midterm elections. The prediction market platform said it will investigate the matter. Trump Jr. had served as a paid strategic adviser to Kalshi. His departure comes as Democrats plan to investigate Trump family investments and business relationships with prediction markets. His investment firm, 1789 Capital, had also increased its stake in rival platform Polymarket. Kalshi had referenced data showing high probabilities for Republican victories that failed to materialize.
Kalshi's split from Trump Jr. turns a political branding strategy into a liability-management exercise. The platform had used his Washington access to differentiate itself; his firm's simultaneous investment in Polymarket made that access a conflict-of-interest risk that regulators and litigators could exploit. For Kalshi, the exit is reputational hygiene before congressional scrutiny intensifies.
Senators Warren and Curtis have already demanded internal trading data under bipartisan deadline. State attorneys general in Ohio and Tennessee frame event contracts as dressed-up gambling, and a partisan adviser with competing loyalties would have weakened Kalshi's defense. The move also sharpens the rivalry with Polymarket, which retains Trump Jr. as an adviser. Each platform now carries distinct political branding that will shape how Congress treats them.
Adds to the post-midterm shakeout among prediction market platforms already under pressure from a New York Times accuracy analysis, congressional data demands, and record volume that has drawn state gambling lawsuits.