Crypto exchanges accelerate push into US prediction markets as token trading slows
Crypto exchanges are racing to add prediction markets for US customers, according to a Financial Times report dated October 20, 2026. The push comes as falling digital asset prices and declining token trading volumes force exchanges to diversify revenue streams. Traditional trading activity has slowed across the sector, and exchanges hope event contracts will offset the drop. Neither report names specific exchanges, product plans, or regulatory approaches.
This trend turns crypto exchanges from prediction-market partners into direct competitors for the retail volume that Robinhood currently routes through third parties. Robinhood depends on Kalshi, Crypto.com, Rothera, and OG.com for event-contract flow without holding its own CFTC exchange license. Every exchange that builds its own trader relationship shrinks the partner pool Robinhood can tap. Piper Sandler projected $320 million in football-season revenue across Robinhood's partner platforms.
Any volume those partners capture for themselves comes out of that forecast. The CFTC's pending swap-rule proposal adds another layer: platforms restructuring for compliance will favor direct licensing over dependency models. Robinhood's $145 stock price assumes prediction-market growth flows through partners it does not control. That assumption looks weaker each time a crypto exchange launches its own US-facing product.
Joins recent direct launches by Blockchain.com's CFTC license filing and Markets in a pattern of crypto-native platforms building their own prediction-market infrastructure rather than serving as white-label backends for broker-dependent stacks.