Coinbase launches live 15-minute crypto price prediction markets for US users
Coinbase launched live crypto price prediction markets for US users on Wednesday, offering contracts on short-term price moves for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and BNB with windows as short as 15 minutes. The move represents an expansion into event-contract-style products as Coinbase pursues licenses and broader distribution. Robinhood is also expected to integrate event contracts into stock accounts after 2025. The launch puts Coinbase in direct competition with prediction market venues targeting crypto-native traders.
Coinbase is entering prediction markets from a position of existing US regulatory standing and millions of verified retail accounts, giving it a user-acquisition advantage that startup venues cannot match. The 15-minute duration places it alongside Polymarket's recent Bitcoin contracts in competing for crypto traders who currently use offshore perpetual futures.
Kalshi has already cleared US stock-index perpetuals under a CFTC fast-track template, so Coinbase's crypto-focused approach may force a speed race for which asset class regulators greenlight next. Each platform's contract structure and collateral rules will define where crypto-native volume migrates. Coinbase's distribution push means its compliance posture will shape what smaller venues must match to stay competitive, or what states may target if they treat short-duration crypto contracts as unlicensed derivatives.