Pham pushes CFTC to modernize Rule 40.11 as watchdog criticizes agency's industry tilt
CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham argued in a Wall Street Journal op-ed dated June 10 that the agency should modernize Rule 40.11 to accommodate prediction markets, framing them as information-aggregation tools that forecast future events faster than traditional methods. The same day, consumer advocacy group Better Markets criticized the CFTC's prediction markets rules, accusing the agency of acting as the industry's biggest cheerleader and citing surveys showing public opposition. A June 11 report described the CFTC as moving to formalize its oversight of prediction markets, a step that could reshape the competitive landscape between event-contract platforms and traditional sportsbooks. No specific operators, dollar figures, or enforcement actions were named in that report. The developments signal active debate among agency leadership, industry backers, and reform advocates over the CFTC's posture toward event-contract platforms.
Kalshi and Polymarket must now track three distinct CFTC rulemaking threads at once. A modernized Rule 40.11 could relax listing standards just as parallel proposals tighten sports and political constraints, creating conflicting compliance signals that force platforms to hedge their product roadmaps.
Pham's modernization push joins a pair of simultaneous CFTC rulemakings — one on sports and terrorism contracts, another on ouster wagers — that would force Kalshi and Polymarket to map every existing market against overlapping compliance frameworks.