Bernstein sees 78% upside for Robinhood on tokenization and prediction markets
Bernstein analysts issued a bullish note on Robinhood on Friday, July 31, 2026, citing 78% upside driven by tokenization and prediction market expansion. The research highlights Robinhood Earn and third-party event contracts as growth vectors beyond core crypto trading. A separate source referenced 85% upside and noted Robinhood's prediction market business operates through a CFTC-regulated event contracts exchange. The upgrade follows a quarter in which Robinhood's prediction-market revenue outearned both crypto and equities.
Each analyst upgrade tightens Robinhood's window to choose its prediction-market strategy. Bernstein follows Truist and Compass Point in treating event contracts as a priced-in revenue driver, not a crypto footnote. That forces management to decide before the next earnings call whether to deepen its Kalshi partnership, accelerate Rothera, or add Crypto.com as a second supplier. The market now models event-contract economics directly, so any hesitation gets punished.
Kalshi faces the sharpest risk: its first-mover advantage in brokerage distribution fades if Robinhood's 27.4 million accounts generate comparable volume for competing venues or for Rothera itself. The platform that secures permanent shelf space will set the template for how brokerages source prediction markets. A second supplier would turn contract sourcing into a permanent auction, squeezing margins for standalone exchanges. Robinhood's vertical-integration talks with Crypto.com suggest it already knows dual sourcing is leverage, not a long-term plan.