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The PredictionNews Daily Brief
The Resolution.
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Polymarket has begun testing perpetual contracts with a limited group of users, Vice President of DeFi Engineering Josh announced on X on Saturday, May 31. The crypto-native prediction market platform, historically focused on binary event contracts tied to political, economic, and cultural outcomes, is expanding into perpetual contracts that allow leveraged exposure without expiration dates. No details were provided on contract specifications, timeline for public launch, or how the selected test users were chosen. The move follows closely behind Polymarket's previously reported preparation to launch a leverage product and comes as the CFTC has just approved bitcoin perpetual futures for Kalshi and Coinbase.
Why this matters?
Puts Polymarket into direct product competition with Kalshi for leveraged crypto derivatives traders just days after the CFTC cleared U.S. bitcoin perpetual futures. Any gap in contract specifications or margin workflows risks ceding the perpetual-futures battle to Kalshi's already-live CFTC-regulated venue.
The bigger picture
Joins Kalshi in the newly opened U.S. perpetual-futures space after the CFTC cleared both platforms this week, widening Polymarket's product stack beyond binary events into direct competition with regulated crypto derivatives venues.
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Why this matters?
The $22 billion valuation and $1 billion raise give Kalshi significant war chest to defend regulatory battles and expand contract offerings, widening its lead over ForecastEx and potentially accelerating an IPO timeline.
The bigger picture
Fifth capital-market maneuver in ten days layered atop the $1.2 billion round, cementing Kalshi's lock on tier-one growth investors — Coatue, Baillie Gifford, Layer Global — that Polymarket's offshore structure cannot match for U.S. retail or institutional distribution.
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Why this matters?
Any state law adopting Illinois's tax-and-licensure framework would force Kalshi and Polymarket to remit gaming taxes retroactively or face geofencing orders. The budget's passage arms state legislators in Nevada, Minnesota, and Rhode Island with a fiscal template for their own pending enforcement actions.
The bigger picture
Illinois joins Rhode Island, Minnesota, and Nevada in advancing state-level action against prediction market platforms, making it the fourth jurisdiction this week to move from regulatory scrutiny to formal legislation or enforcement targeting Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Why this matters?
Polymarket's identity pivot burns the pseudonymous trading model that built its crypto-native user base. Any KYC expansion beyond this beta would force competing prediction markets to match compliance posture or surrender the institutional liquidity pools that gate mainstream adoption.
The bigger picture
Third compliance tightening this week for Polymarket, after VPN-blocking and a beta KYC pilot, as the platform trades its pseudonymous roots for regulatory survival while Kalshi lobbies Congress to close the compliance gap it leaves behind.
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Why this matters?
Polymarket loses its retail-everyman positioning just as state attorneys general in Rhode Island, Minnesota, and Nevada are building fiscal and enforcement cases against prediction markets. The profitability concentration data gives prosecutors a consumer-harm narrative to pair with the AGA's tax-revenue claims.
The bigger picture
Adds the Wall Street Journal to Bloomberg and the AGA in a three-sided press offensive against prediction market profitability claims, with each outlet attacking from a different vector: user outcomes, tax avoidance, and data opacity.
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The Resolution.
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