On Tuesday night, Bloomberg News reported that Trump will choose Brian Quintenz to lead the CFTC. Quintenz is a board member of the CFTC-regulated prediction market Kalshi, giving prediction markets a powerful ally in their regulator.
Quintenz was a Republican CFTC commissioner from 2017 to 2021. He joined Kalshi’s board in November 2021 and has been the Head of Policy for a16z’s crypto division. a16z is Andreessen Horowitz’s venture capitalist firm, which invests in technology startups in many industries, especially DeFi industries.
Quintenz will be able to resolve some of the key issues facing prediction markets, like whether sports or elections count as gaming under the Commodities Exchange Act (CEA). He’s been on Kalshi’s board throughout the company’s fight with the CFTC over election contracts. Quintenz is likely to help Kalshi and other prediction markets like PredictIt keep their election contracts live.
Another Republican CFTC commissioner believes election contracts are 'here to say'
Appearing on a webinar hosted by The Federalist Society, Republican CFTC Commissioner Summer Mersinger was critical of the CFTC’s objections to new event contracts by calling them “gaming.” It was a central argument in Kalshi’s election contract case, but Mersinger is optimistic about the future of election contracts in the new administration.
“I think election prediction markets are here to stay,” Mersinger said. “There’s a utility in them and people who are worried about whether or not this could be a place of influence or question the integrity of the elections, these contracts have a lot of safeguards in place to ensure that certain manipulation doesn’t occur.”
CFTC commissioners aren’t the only allies prediction markets now have in Washington. Kalshi has Donald Trump Jr. as a strategic advisor. When he took the role, Trump Jr. confirmed reports that the Trump team followed Kalshi’s election market throughout election night. Elon Musk has also retweeted Kalshi’s DOGE market and endorsed Polymarket’s election markets, adding another powerful ally for the prediction market industry.
With so many steadfast allies in power, it’s no wonder that Mersinger is optimistic.
“I think we have to carefully look at these contracts as they come online,” Mersinger said. “But the idea that we can unilaterally say no by calling everything gaming, those days are over, and the Commission is going to have to take a new approach.”
