The Senate passed Donald Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill, even as some Republicans defected. The vote was 51-50 with Vice President J.D. Vance’s tie-breaking vote. The bill now returns to the House where, if passed, it will be sent to President Trump’s desk for his signature.
Traders at commercial prediction market Kalshi caught the holdouts early. Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski was a likely ‘Yes’ since June 27, while Maine Senator Susan Collins became less likely to vote ‘Yes’ for the reconciliation bill since June 26. Murkowski had a 78% chance of voting ‘Yes’ the morning of the vote, up from a low of 35%. Meanwhile, Collins had a 26% chance of voting ‘Yes,’ down from a high of 88% odds just six days prior.
Tillis’ odds fell from 78% to 10% on June 28 while Paul’s remained around or below 10% since May 23.
Republicans may have campaigned on concerns about the budget deficit, but Trump’s policy goals have won out over other campaign promises from Republicans pitching themselves as fiscal conservatives. With traders expecting the bill to become law before August (currently trading at odds of 90%), the impacts of this bill’s contents will soon be impossible to walk away from.
Trump’s spending bill expected to cost $3.2 trillion
Kalshi traders estimate that Trump’s big, beautiful bill will add $3.2 trillion to the U.S. budget deficit over the next decade.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates the reconciliation bill will add $3.3 trillion to the deficit, while the White House claims the bill will reduce the deficit. Kalshi’s traders seem to be weighing the tax cuts for wealthy Americans more heavily than the president’s rhetoric.
The corporate tax rate is set to be reduced from 35% to 21%, and high-income households can deduct up to $40,000 in state and local taxes from federal taxes instead of the previous $10,000 limit.
The expected increase in the budget deficit has reignited the feud between Elon Musk and President Trump and led Musk to double down on his pitch to start a new political party altogether.
Musk re-entering politics on his own terms
Musk was the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which failed to live up to promised cuts that would balance the budget. Trump’s policy goals are misaligned with Musk’s, and Musk has no champion for his ideas in the Democratic Party.
Whether Musk actually starts a new political party is up for debate (and for trading), but his primary challenges could reveal more about what politics would look like on his terms instead of as part of a Trump alliance. What is clear is that the rifts in the Republican Party over the deficit could be a fault line Musk attempts to weaponize going into the 2026 midterm season.
