Elon Musk officially left government service last Friday, receiving his medal after attempting to cut $2 trillion in government spending. Instead, he ended regulatory investigations into his companies and reinstated many of the employees and contracts his DOGE team cut. Commercial prediction market platform Kalshi has had several markets on DOGE’s performance, some of which DOGE members have referenced in their work.
Kalshi traders have forecast reductions in government spending, government employees, and which agencies DOGE will order to stop working in 2025. Each of these markets is consistent with reporting on DOGE’s efforts: how far short of its original goals the temporary governmental organization has fallen as it approaches the halfway mark of 2025. Let’s take a look at what the prediction markets have to say about DOGE results so far.
DOGE government spending cuts fall short
Kalshi’s forecast for the amount of money DOGE would cut in 2025 fell from a high of about $300 billion to $1 billion.
As DOGE gained increasing access to government systems, it seemed poised to make the cuts Musk intended. On Feb. 5, the day Kalshi forecasted $300 billion, the DOGE team gained access to Medicare and Medicaid systems. These are among the two most expensive programs in the United States’ budget.
However, they’re also among the most popular. About three-quarters of Americans hold very or somewhat favorable views of Medicaid, including 70% of Republicans. Trump’s big, beautiful bill cuts the Medicaid budget by $600 billion over 10 years. So, it remains to be seen whether Medicaid or Medicare cuts were viable targets for DOGE in the first place.
Government employee cuts ongoing
While DOGE has failed to meaningfully reduce government spending, it’s forecasted to cut 169,000 government jobs in 2025. In a 2.4 million-strong federal workforce, that’s about 7% of the workforce. It’s a noticeable chunk of federal jobs. Though they didn’t cut the federal budget, the department did reduce the size of government.
However, the impact of those cuts has already impeded certain government functions. Musk had to rehire government workers studying Ebola outbreaks and those maintaining the United States’ nuclear arsenal. It remains to be seen where the final number for 2025 lands, or the longterm impact of some of the reductions.
Agency shutdowns looking less likely
DOGE hasn’t just gone after government spending and jobs. It has also targeted entire agencies that Musk and his team believe should no longer function.
The Trump administration has made the Department of Education one of its early targets. In March, it had a 60% chance of being ordered to stop its work by the new year. Trump’s March 20 executive order instructed his education secretary to begin dismantling key functions of the Education Department.
However, federal courts have halted Trump’s mass layoffs at the Education Department. The odds that Trump and DOGE will successfully order the Education Department to cease functioning have fallen to 14%. Other agencies like FEMA (21%) and the EPA (12%) also seem unlikely to stop working this year.
While Trump has another three years to attempt to shut down federal agencies, only Congress can dismantle a federal agency altogether. Republican senators and House representatives may want to shrink the federal government, but they’ll all want federal funds when disasters strike or when state budgets require cash infusions.
