The latest College Football Coaches Poll was released on Sunday, shaking things up up after a handful of statement wins and one ugly meltdown.
Below, we recap what each mover did on the field to trigger the shift, and now where prediction markets currently price their chances to win it all or take the conference.
Illinois — Down 15 to No. 23
What happened: Illinois was blown out at Indiana, 63–10. The Illini allowed seven sacks, conceded a blocked-punt TD, and trailed big by halftime—voters punished the no-show.
Prediction-market snapshot: 1% to win the Big 10 title.
TCU — Up to No. 25 (new in)
What happened: Beat SMU 35–24 in the last scheduled “Iron Skillet.” Josh Hoover tossed five TDs and Eric McAlister erupted for 254 receiving yards—enough résumé juice to enter the Top 25.
Prediction-market snapshot: 15% to win the Big 12 Championship.
USC — Up to No. 22 (new in)
What happened: Handled Michigan State 45–31. Jayden Maiava accounted for five TDs as the Trojans’ offense kept answering every Spartan push.
Prediction-market snapshot: Single-digit chance to win the Big 10 behind Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State.
Indiana — Up to No. 12
What happened: Delivered the weekend’s sledgehammer—63–10 over then-No. 9 Illinois—behind five TD passes, a blocked-punt score, and a front seven that lived in the backfield.
Prediction-market snapshot: 6% to win the Big 10 conference title.
Missouri — Up to No. 19
What happened: Closed strong to beat South Carolina 29–20, finishing with 11 unanswered in the fourth. Clean, composed, physical—voters nudged Mizzou up.
Prediction-market snapshot: 3% to win the SEC Championship.
Vanderbilt — Up to No. 20
What happened: Hung 70–21 on Georgia State, the program’s highest output in more than a century. Efficient, explosive, and never in doubt.
Prediction-market snapshot: 2% to win the SEC title.
Oklahoma — Up to No. 10
What happened: Beat Auburn 24–17 on the road with a defense-first profile—nine sacks and a late go-ahead drive sealed it. The Sooners re-entered the top 10.
Prediction-market snapshot: Still only 11% to win the SEC, behind four teams, one of which is Texas.
Texas Tech — Up to No. 14
What happened: Went to Salt Lake City and thumped Utah 34–10. Backup QB Will Hammond sparked four scoring drives after halftime—true road dominance.
Prediction-market snapshot: Up from 1% to 4% to win the national title.
BYU — Up to No. 24 (new in)
What happened: 34–13 at East Carolina with a goal-line INT and immediate pick-six flipping momentum. A clean 3–0 start earned poll entry.
Prediction-market snapshot: 7% to win the Big 12 title game.
Alabama — Down to No. 16
What happened: Didn’t stumble, but others’ statement wins triggered a reshuffle in the teens and Bama slid a couple of spots as a result.
Prediction-market snapshot: SEC title: still firmly a contender (second tier of pricing).
Methodology & Notes
Movements reflect the US LBM Coaches Poll released Sept. 21. “Prediction-market snapshot” lines reference active pricing bands from current conference or national-title markets, according to prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.
