Back-to-back op-eds warn states will regulate and tax prediction markets
Opinion columns in the Wyoming Tribune Eagle and the Idaho State Journal argue that state governments will expand regulation and taxation of prediction markets beyond current federal oversight. Cargill contends in the Wyoming piece that states will eagerly tax any prediction market they can reach. Both pieces frame prediction markets as targets for growing state-level intervention. The editorials follow closely on state gambling lawsuits and tax debates that have already put Kalshi and Polymarket under state pressure.
These columns are not random speculation. They arrive as Kalshi already loses preemption fights in Ohio and Tennessee and Hawaii openly weighs taxing its residents' Kalshi bets despite state gambling bans. The op-eds give ideological cover to legislators and attorneys general hunting revenue. For Kalshi and Polymarket, the warning means state tax registration and compliance costs now sit alongside gambling litigation on the same balance sheet.
The platforms must budget for both, even where they believe their CFTC registration protects them. Smaller operators without Kalshi's legal team will face the same dual threat first and will retreat fastest. Market concentration accelerates toward the best-funded venues. The next state to move from editorial page to introduced bill turns warning into law.