Analytics firm finds suspected insider accounts won $2.4 million on Polymarket Iran war bets
Nine linked accounts won $2.4 million across more than 80 bets on Polymarket contracts tied to U.S. military actions in Iran, achieving a 98% win rate, according to findings by analytics firm 二级市场 (Secondary Market) that were amplified by Bubblemaps and highlighted in a 60 Minutes report. The pattern — captured in a Reddit post that drew 2,300 upvotes and in reporting by Yahoo Finance and others — has spurred insider-trading suspicions because of the unusually accurate timing and coordinated positioning. The activity surfaced on a platform that does not hold CFTC registration and therefore lacks the surveillance infrastructure of regulated exchanges, heightening concerns about information asymmetry in military-event markets.
Polymarket must now defend against four concurrent investigations while Senate legislation mandating congressional-account bans advances to the House. Any confirmed surveillance gap could force the platform to build real-time position-monitoring systems or face binding federal registration requirements.
Polymarket now faces four separate journalistic or regulatory probes — CBS, NYT, DOJ, and this analytics report — after the Senate already voted unanimously to bar congressional trading on the platform, tightening the legislative noose even as its surveillance gaps draw documented scrutiny.