Robinhood prediction markets revenue tops crypto by 56% in record quarter
Robinhood's prediction markets revenue surpassed its crypto revenue for the first time in the second quarter, coming in 56% higher. The segment generated $156 million, while crypto revenue fell to $100 million. Users traded 13.6 billion event contracts during the quarter, more than ten times the year-ago level. Crypto notional trading volume fell 39% over the same period. Prediction markets is now Robinhood's second largest trading business. Shares edged lower despite the record quarter.
Robinhood's $156 million event-contract haul turns a product experiment into a platform-defining revenue line. Management now faces immediate pressure to clarify its supplier strategy before the next earnings call. The platform routes volume through both Kalshi and its own Rothera joint venture. Every analyst endorsement of vertical integration raises the cost of dependence on outside exchanges.
Kalshi faces the most direct squeeze. Its first-mover advantage in brokerage distribution fades if Robinhood's account base generates comparable volume for competing venues or for Rothera itself. The platform that offers Robinhood the best economics will set the template for how brokerages source prediction markets.