Polymarket Hormuz Strait odds fall to 25% as Iran deal hopes fade
Polymarket traders slashed the probability of Hormuz Strait normalization by June 30 to 25%, down from previous levels, as deteriorating expectations for a near-term U.S.-Iran peace deal fed through to the crypto-native prediction market. The repricing, reported June 2 in the Wall Street Journal and June 1 on Phemex, reflects persistent tensions alongside ongoing negotiations over the heavily trafficked oil-shipping chokepoint. The move comes days after Polymarket priced 72.5% odds of WTI crude falling to $85 on Iran deal news, showing how rapidly sentiment is shifting across related geopolitical contracts.
Each new Iran-linked repricing anomaly feeds the same five concurrent federal and journalistic probes already circling Polymarket. Any surveillance gap confirmed by these swings could harden bipartisan House support for binding federal registration requirements before the Senate-passed account-exclusion legislation reaches a floor vote.
Second Iran-linked odds repricing on Polymarket in under four days, extending the pattern of violent geopolitical contract swings already drawing five concurrent federal and journalistic probes.