Survey: Nearly 8 in 10 prediction market users say they lost money
A new survey finds that nearly 8 in 10 prediction market users report losing money. The ABC15 Arizona interactive report notes that prediction markets have grown beyond their origins as a niche tool for economists and political forecasters. Users now wager on outcomes ranging from hurricane landfalls to election results. The finding comes as prediction markets are described as the fastest-growing corner of American finance.
Retail losses at this scale hollow out the core promise that prediction markets harness collective wisdom. If four of five users lose money, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket face a credibility collapse that marketing cannot fix. Negative word-of-mouth spreads through social channels faster than any ad campaign can counter. The timing cuts deep: both platforms are already fighting state attorneys general and members of Congress over election-contract integrity.
Poor user outcomes give those opponents a clean morality argument to layer onto their technical ones. Neither company can easily challenge the figure without full survey methodology, which remains undisclosed. A second survey replicating the 8-in-10 loss rate would freeze new account sign-ups right when both platforms need volume ahead of major election cycles.