CFTC reviews $5B in Kalshi trades as Morning Brew questions volume legitimacy
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is reviewing $5 billion in unusual Kalshi trades for potential wash trading, according to reports. A Morning Brew video segment separately questioned whether Kalshi is inflating its popularity. The presenter pointed to Kalshi filings showing zero trading fees for certain traders, which would make wash trading free. The agency has not yet decided whether to open a formal enforcement investigation.
Kalshi's volume data is now under simultaneous attack from a federal regulator and a mainstream business-media outlet. Traders use that volume to price liquidity risk; if the CFTC confirms wash trading or the zero-fee loophole gains traction, the platform's headline numbers become a reason to flee rather than to trade. Competitors with cleaner fee structures and audited trade counts can capture the migration.
The CFTC's review also comes as Kalshi is pushing for margin-trading approval and scaling its NFL-season product suite, so any enforcement action would stall both. Kalshi has offered no public methodology to rebut the allegations. Verified volume from any rival would set the transparency standard Kalshi would be forced to match under duress.