Meta reportedly building AI-powered prediction market app to rival Kalshi and Polymarket
Meta is developing a prediction markets app that would compete with Kalshi and Polymarket, according to reports from June 24. Documents reviewed by NPR Illinois indicate the product will be AI-powered, while Tech Brew reported it would use play money, at least initially. The product marks Meta's second attempt to enter the space after earlier efforts were shelved. An Opening Bell Media co-founder argued Meta's distribution advantage across Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp could let it dominate the sector. Meta has not announced details or a timeline. The move would add one of the world's largest technology companies to the event-contract space, where Robinhood and Interactive Brokers already offer event-based contracts tied to political and economic outcomes.
A Meta prediction market with nearly 3 billion daily users across Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp would instantly dwarf Polymarket and Kalshi on distribution. Even modest play-money engagement would force the two CFTC-regulated platforms to defend their product edge against a free rival with unmatched scale.
Joins Cboe's recent S&P 500 prediction market suite for Schwab and Interactive Brokers as the second major non-prediction-market native to target the event-contract space this year.