Maricopa County bans employee prediction market trading on insider info
The Maricopa County Board of Supervisors unanimously approved a policy on Wednesday, July 15 banning roughly 13,000 employees from using non-public information to profit on prediction markets. The move targets insider-trading risks tied to county workers' access to privileged government data. The vote comes as Arizona's primary election approaches and prediction markets have expanded their event contract offerings. The policy does not appear to impose criminal penalties.
County-level bans multiply the compliance burden for Kalshi and Polymarket in ways that mirror the municipal squeeze already underway. Chicago's pending prohibition and now Maricopa's policy show local governments acting faster than federal regulators to fence public employees out of event contracts. The platforms lose a narrow but valuable user base: informed local officials who drive volume on election and government-policy markets. That degrade's price signal precisely where platforms need liquidity to justify their CFTC-regulated status.
The twin county and city actions also signal a playbook other jurisdictions can copy without waiting for Washington. For Kalshi and Polymarket, the patchwork means fighting insider-trading narratives on fifty fronts rather than one clean federal standard. The Arizona primary timing suggests election contracts face particular scrutiny. Professional traders watching the trend may conclude that government-related markets carry growing reputational risk, pushing flow toward state-licensed sportsbooks or offshore venues instead.
This ban extends the municipal crackdown on insider-trading risk to the county level, joining Chicago's pending prohibition on city staff trading Kalshi and Polymarket contracts and amplifying the pressure that already pushed Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to restrict their own employees.