Kraken parent Payward's Q3 adjusted EBITDA drops 66%, plans US prediction markets and AI agent
Kraken parent Payward reported third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $60 million. That marks a roughly 66% decline year over year. Funded accounts grew 37% during the same period. The company disclosed plans to enter US prediction markets. Payward also aims to develop a personal finance AI agent. The disclosure frames prediction markets and tokenized stocks as central to its strategic pivot. Trading volumes in crypto markets can swing sharply from quarter to quarter.
Payward's 66% profit collapse gives its prediction-market entry the urgency of a revenue-replacement play, not a side experiment. The exchange must build US event-contract infrastructure fast enough to offset crypto trading's volatility. That timeline matters because Crypto.com's OG.com is already live with a dual prediction-market and derivatives stack, and Coinbase has partnered with Kalshi for market access. Payward risks arriving as a laggard, forced to buy volume through fee subsidies or acquisition rather than organic growth.
Its AI agent pitch lacks regulatory clarity and a clear monetization path. The funded-account growth of 37% shows retail users are still arriving, but converting them into prediction-market traders requires product and compliance investment that will strain a smaller EBITDA base. Competitors with deeper pockets or earlier regulatory positioning can outspend Payward on both fronts. A US prediction-market launch within the next two quarters would keep Payward relevant; beyond that, the category may be locked up by first movers.
Payward joins Crypto.com's OG.com and Coinbase's Kalshi partnership in the crypto-exchange rush to add US prediction markets, making it the third major exchange this quarter to stake a position in event contracts.