Kalshi traders price Rams as Super Bowl favorite at 17%
Kalshi traders price the Los Angeles Rams as Super Bowl favorite at 17% ahead of the 2026 NFL season. The Buffalo Bills and Seattle Seahawks sit next at 8% each. In Week 1, Seattle is favored at 61% to beat New England. The Rams' NFC Championship odds dropped 5 percentage points to 19% after a 27-7 loss. Kalshi published power rankings for all 32 teams. Deadspin flagged Patriots-Seahawks and Rams-49ers as markets to watch.
These opening-week price snapshots reveal almost nothing about whether Kalshi's sports markets can absorb real size. A 17% Rams line tells traders the market exists, not that it is deep enough to fill meaningful orders without slippage. Novig's $125 million first-week pace has already set the liquidity benchmark for this NFL season. Kalshi's order book must match that depth or lose traders to venues where flow is currently richest.
The promotional odds posts risk overstating liquidity if bid-ask spreads gap on news. Novig's $125 million first-week volume forced a redeployment decision for market makers weighing where to place capital among regulated sports venues. Kalshi's summer engineering spend faces its first real test when Sunday's order-book quality is revealed under live NFL flow. Margin for error is thin; a slippage event in a high-profile market would send traders elsewhere before the platform can recover.