Kalshi says Fed hike odds doubled to 40% this month
Kalshi traders have repriced the odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this month to 40%, double the previous level. The prediction market flagged the move in a post on X on October 14. The repricing came as central banks including the US, eurozone, Japan, India, Australia, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa all raised rates at their latest meetings. Rate-sensitive markets rattled on the shift, according to one report.
The sudden repricing destroys the consensus that Kalshi and Polymarket had converged on just days ago. Last week both venues priced October hike odds near 18% after weak jobs data; now Kalshi alone has doubled that probability while Polymarket's position is not yet visible in the sources. Macro traders who bought hold contracts at the discounted consensus face immediate mark-to-market pain.
The speed of the reversal recalls Polymarket's September whipsaw from 93% to zero on hike odds, but this time Kalshi is the venue shifting first. Traders must now decide whether to fade the 40% as an overreaction to synchronized foreign hikes or treat it as advance pricing for a Fed surprise. The October meeting deadline leaves little room for data to resolve the split before settlement.