Kalshi recession odds plunge to 14% all-time low as Iran deal probability reaches 65%
Kalshi traders on May 27 priced the probability of a US recession this year at 14%, a new all-time low for the contract after hitting 16% on May 22. In a separate market, Kalshi posted on May 25 that traders assigned a 65% chance of a US-Iran nuclear deal this year, marking a recent high for that contract. The recession contract drew significant social engagement, with Kalshi's May 27 post receiving 497 likes and 107 replies on X. Neither post specified what drove the moves or disclosed trading volume. The two macro markets represent Kalshi's highest-profile political and economic verticals. The platform has not announced any contract expiries or settlement triggers tied to either price level.
Kalshi must now navigate the same Iran-contract scrutiny already bearing down on Polymarket's five concurrent federal and journalistic probes. Any surveillance gap revealed by sharp repricing on Kalshi's 65% Iran deal market could harden the bipartisan House case for binding federal registration requirements.
Brings Kalshi alongside Polymarket into the concurrent Iran-contract repricing spotlight, with both platforms now showing elevated US-Iran deal probabilities alongside separate federal and congressional scrutiny tracks.