Kalshi shifts from Bass 79% favorite to Raman 99% as LA mayor vote count reverses
Karen Bass entered Election Day as the favorite on Kalshi with 79% odds, but the prediction market swung dramatically as vote counting progressed. By the following day, Nithya Raman carried a 26,124-vote lead in the LA mayoral race while Kalshi traders priced Raman at 99%. NBC News continues to list the contest as too early to call. The reversal follows Bass's earlier jump from 58% to 79% that was driven by Tuesday turnout in the previously deadlocked race.
The 79%-to-99% swing gives state attorneys general in Ohio and Tennessee fresh material for their argument that event contracts amplify sentiment rather than predict outcomes. Kalshi's politically visible markets moved from Bass favorite to Raman near-certainty while official counts remained incomplete. That pattern matches complaints already filed.
Retail capital in this cycle hit $1.48 billion on Kalshi alone, so any high-profile miss lands harder and reaches more users through Bloomberg and CBS News embeds. A Bass comeback from current Raman levels would cement the narrative Kalshi must beat in court. The accuracy test is immediate: NBC still calls the race too early.