Kalshi launches Bitcoin up/down market using CF Benchmarks index
Kalshi has listed a new Bitcoin price prediction market, ticker kxbtc15m, that resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI) for price discovery. The contract asks whether Bitcoin will be up or down at a specific expiration window. Kalshi traders are currently pricing an 88% probability that Bitcoin will hit $75,000 before $100,000, reflecting repricing amid crypto volatility, rising yields, and broader inflation fears. The use of an established crypto index provider marks a shift toward more institutional-grade reference rates in crypto event contracts. No open-interest figure or contract expiry was specified for the trader positioning.
Kalshi's adoption of CF Benchmarks' RTI gives it a CFTC-defensible reference rate that rival crypto prediction markets lack, reducing settlement-dispute risk as the agency ramps enforcement on ambiguous contract terms.