Kalshi home run odds: Stokastic finds half of listed MLB markets lack live quotes
Kalshi listed 66 home-run markets for Wednesday's 14 MLB games, but Stokastic found only 35 carried live two-sided quotes around 12:10 PM ET. The Stokastic analysis compared its own simulation-driven odds against Kalshi's prices, highlighting liquidity gaps where roughly half the listed contracts lacked active quoting. A separate social post referenced 42% Kalshi odds on a pitcher innings prop, tagged #kalshipartner.
This is the clearest measurement yet of Kalshi's baseball liquidity problem. Stokastic pulled real prices and found 31 of 66 listed contracts had no active quote. A trader seeing a listed market cannot assume it is tradeable. For anyone building size, phantom listings mean spent time, missed fills, and slippage on the contracts that do clear. Kalshi's growth pitch rests on regulated access to sports exposure, but half-empty boards undermine that claim against traditional sportsbooks with guaranteed liquidity.
The gap is structural: listing a contract is cheap, making it two-sided takes capital. Kalshi's social posts and partner hashtag campaigns amplify reach without solving the depth issue. Institutional desks will route elsewhere until the fill rate matches the listing count. The next audit Stokastic or any third party runs will be watched for whether the ratio improves or this snapshot becomes the norm.