Kalshi: Democrats 61% for 2028 White House, Rubio hits 19% high
Prediction market Kalshi is showing record-level pricing across multiple political markets. As of this week, the platform gives Democrats a 61% implied chance of winning the 2028 presidential election, according to an OregonLive report. By May 6, Marco Rubio had hit a new high of 19% for the Republican nomination on Kalshi, and by early Sunday, Kalshi posted on X that Rubio had tied with JD Vance for the 2028 presidency — the post drew 930 likes and 137 replies. Separately, traders are pricing Democratic chances to win the US House at 74%, a record high that a Facebook post framed as a reaction to Trump. Kalshi did not specify exact probabilities or volume for the Rubio-Vance tie in its social post.
Kalshi's official X account is now treating price-point milestones as breaking news events, a content strategy that Polymarket cannot legally replicate for U.S. users; any CFTC review of that practice could rewrite how regulated exchanges broadcast live odds.