Kalshi can use Ninth Circuit ruling to help its cause, law professor says
The Ninth Circuit has ruled against prediction markets in a case Kalshi can leverage for its own Supreme Court bid, according to law professor Melinda Roth. The verdict was expected and sets up the long-anticipated high court showdown, attorney Stephen Piepgrass said. Kalshi is now heading toward the Supreme Court as circuit splits deepen over whether CFTC registration blocks state gambling oversight. The ruling was discussed on CoinDesk's 'The Policy Protocol' on September 4, 2026.
The Ninth Circuit decision gives Kalshi fresh material to argue its preemption theory before the Supreme Court. Roth's analysis suggests the ruling contains reasoning Kalshi can weaponize, even though the panel sided against prediction markets. That reframing matters because Kalshi's board has already called circuit opinions 'more confusion than clarity,' signaling frustration with scattered losses across multiple states. Every state defeat narrows the territory where CFTC designation protects contract validity; Nevada forced a geofence and Connecticut sued within days of each other.
Kalshi's legal spend now compounds across parallel cases while its national sports market fragments. A favorable Supreme Court ruling would restore uniform federal rules and halt the geofence cascade. An unfavorable one validates state gambling authority nationwide and invites copycat actions against polymarket, ForecastEx, and every other CFTC-registered platform offering sports-linked contracts. The cert grant rate is low, but New Jersey's parallel petition signals scattered state losses have hardened.