DOJ clears Rep. Luna of prediction market insider-trading probe
The Justice Dept. confirmed it is not investigating Representative Anna Paulina Luna over allegations of insider trading in prediction markets. The department stated it never received a referral related to Luna and that she engaged in no criminal conduct. The confirmation contradicts prior claims that Luna had tipped off an influencer who traded on Trump's vice-presidential pick on Polymarket. Both Luna and the influencer denied wrongdoing. The statement follows earlier speculation about potential market manipulation tied to prediction market trading.
This clear exoneration limits one front of political pressure on prediction markets while leaving others wide open. Luna was the only sitting lawmaker publicly named in betting-related speculation, and her clearance removes a focal point for congressional grandstanding about insider trading on Polymarket or Kalshi. The CFTC still holds two fresh Kalshi settlements from this week alone — the Santos fine and the teleprompter operator case — which give lawmakers concrete precedents to cite.
The enforcement split matters for platforms because it shows DOJ and CFTC moving on separate timelines with different thresholds. Kalshi and Polymarket now face CFTC-driven reputation risk without a parallel DOJ target to deflect attention. For traders, the signal is that political-information edge remains squarely in the CFTC's crosshairs, even when DOJ declines.