Fed hike lands as predicted, October 2026 rate odds now trade on Kalshi and Polymarket
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16. Prediction markets had priced the hike at 87% probability going in, according to one source. Now Kalshi and Polymarket are offering odds on the Fed's October 2026 rate decision. The median Fed projection puts year-end rates at 4%-4.25%, implying one more quarter-point increase before holding through 2027. Pricing across prediction markets and futures markets is being compared in the wake of the hike.
The post-hike pricing on Kalshi and Polymarket will reveal whether either venue captured the macro signal cleanly or amplified pre-Fed positioning into distorted levels. Traders who took the 87% pre-hike price face mark-to-market pain if October odds overshoot and snap back, as happened when Polymarket's 25-basis-point contract dropped ten points in a single day last cycle.
Kalshi's new October contract must show steadier book depth than its political-Fed books, which have whipped on single statements. The venue that settles this cycle with less slippage gains recurring rate-trading flow. The other risks the novelty-venue label rivals exploit.
The 25-basis-point September hike resolves the widest venue split on a live Fed call since these contracts launched, when Kalshi priced 88% odds against Polymarket's $50 million pool betting no change.