Democrats lead Republicans by 3.8 points on Kalshi's American Power Index
The Democratic Party leads the Republican Party by 3.8 points on Kalshi's American Power Index, a market-based measure of the balance of political power. The index is published by the regulated prediction market platform Kalshi.
Provides a real-time, market-based snapshot of trader sentiment on partisan control heading into the 2026 cycle. The 3.8-point spread is a concrete data point for tracking how prediction-market participants price political power shifts.
Kalshi's American Power Index joins five other active political books this reporting window — district-level House control, North Carolina Senate, Los Angeles mayor, Maine Senate, and Polymarket's sweep odds — as regulated and offshore venues race to price the full hierarchy of the 2026 cycle.