Kalshi prices Gauff at 88% to beat Badosa in US Open second round
Kalshi traders price Coco Gauff at 88% to defeat Paula Badosa in the US Open second round despite Gauff trailing 5-3 in their career head-to-head record. Gauff sits behind Aryna Sabalenka as the second-highest-priced player to win the tournament on the platform. The pricing arrives mid-tournament as Kalshi operates under its new exclusive, multi-year partnership as official prediction market partner of the US Open. No bid-ask spread or book depth data was disclosed.
These percentages are thin-book signals, not tradable levels. Gauff at 88% offers minimal upside for buyers, while a single upset would vaporize sellers who wrote at that price. Kalshi's tennis markets lack the depth to absorb sharp size without violent repricing, as the Alcaraz swing to 34% after Sinner's injury exit already demonstrated. Novig's $125 million debut week and Polymarket's established liquidity are pulling two-sided flow toward tighter spreads elsewhere.
Traders should treat these round-two percentages as indicative until bid-ask data and committed capital prove otherwise. The exclusive US Open partnership bought Kalshi brand visibility, not a walled garden of inventory, since Robinhood Derivatives lists the same tournament without the badge. That channel conflict means prices on identical matches may diverge across venues with different fees and depth.
Joins a running pattern of thin-book tennis pricing at Kalshi, from Alcaraz's repricing after Sinner's exit to the round-one Gauff and Zverev advances, as the platform's US Open exclusivity faces open order books at Robinhood Derivatives.