BofA says prediction markets on pace for $1.5 trillion annual volume
Bank of America analysts told the NEXTPredict Summit NYC that weekly prediction market volume reached $28 billion, up nearly 30-fold in a year. That pace implies roughly $1.5 trillion annually, far ahead of prior forecasts. Kalshi holds 75-80% of that share. Sports contracts still dominate trading activity. The event also surfaced ongoing tension between federal and state regulators over oversight of the growing sector.
A $1.5 trillion annual pace rewires every growth assumption in the sector. Kalshi's 75-80% share means it captures the bulk of that expansion, but also faces the bulk of regulatory exposure as platforms scale faster than rulemaking. The federal-state tension flagged at NEXTPredict matters because state gambling suits move in weeks while CFTC swaps rulemaking stretches across months.
Platforms now face fragmenting legal risk before any federal clarity arrives. Sportsbooks feel direct competitive pressure as event-contract platforms lure their core betting audience with regulated alternatives. The volume surge also pressures infrastructure built for a far smaller market, with liquidity and settlement systems untested at trillion-dollar scale. Early stress in those systems would hit Kalshi first given its share concentration.