NPR traces prediction market roots from 1940s election betting to Iowa Electronic Markets
NPR's Planet Money published a multipart profile on June 24, 2026, tracing the history of prediction markets through Julia Redpath and the Iowa Electronic Markets. The coverage notes that election betting was common in the United States until the 1940s before fading away under regulatory pressure. The Iowa Electronic Markets operated as early academic prediction-market infrastructure, positioned as a precursor to today's commercial platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Redpath's work is framed in the context of this foundational era that predated regulated and crypto-native venues now competing for market share.
Kalshi and Polymarket must now prove their event-contract model works in practice while defending against Meta's looming entry and simultaneous regulatory pressure from states, tribes, and the CFTC. The academic theory that powered their founding faces its first real-world stress test.