Atlantic Council points to Europe's binary options crackdown as model for US prediction market rules
An Atlantic Council blog post suggests Europe's crackdown on retail binary options could serve as a regulatory model for US lawmakers as Congress considers new rules for prediction markets. The comparison, published June 11, frames European restrictions on retail binary options as a template that US policymakers might adapt for overseeing event-contract platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The analysis comes as Congress actively debates how to regulate prediction markets, though neither the Atlantic Council post nor related reporting specifies particular legislative proposals, timelines, or the precise scope of the European action being referenced.
Kalshi and Polymarket must now track whether Congress imports Europe's retail binary options framework wholesale or tailors it for event contracts. A European-inspired ban on retail participation would force both platforms to shed individual traders and pivot toward institutional-only liquidity.
The Atlantic Council comparison arrives as CFTC sports event contract rules enter a 45-day comment period, part of a three-track rulemaking push that also covers enemy-ouster wagers and the federal gambling-gaming boundary.