American Gaming Association claims prediction markets cost states $1 billion in tax revenue
The American Gaming Association, the trade group representing commercial casino operators, estimated that prediction market platforms have cost states nearly $1 billion in tax revenue since the start of 2025. The AGA argues that revenue diverted to prediction markets escapes the state-level tax framework applied to sportsbooks and tribal gaming compacts. No specific methodology or named platforms accompanied the figure. The association, which has historically opposed unregulated gaming competition, is using the estimate to pressure state and federal lawmakers to tighten regulation or taxation of prediction market platforms as those products gain market share. The claim reflects escalating tension between traditional gaming interests and the expanding prediction market sector.
The $1 billion figure gives Minnesota lawmakers and other state legislators a concrete talking point to justify bans or taxation of prediction market platforms. Any state that acts on the AGA's estimate forces Kalshi, Polymarket, and rival exchanges to choose between geoblocking users or accepting state-level tax obligations.
Joins the House Oversight demand for Kalshi and Polymarket records and the Rhode Island preemption fight as the fourth major pressure front on prediction market platforms in under a week, with the AGA's $1 billion figure now available to lawmakers in Minnesota and other states weighing bans.