AGA forecasts flat $29.5 billion NFL wagering for 2026, blames prediction markets
The American Gaming Association (AGA) forecasts $29.5 billion in legal NFL wagering for 2026, roughly flat year over year. The trade group blames rising prediction market volume for slowing growth in traditional sports betting. The AGA estimates $40 billion will be wagered on the NFL through prediction markets this season. Connecticut separately alleges that Crypto.com, Robinhood, and ProphetX are offering unlicensed sports betting through prediction market structures.
The AGA's flat forecast signals that sportsbook revenue is now zero-sum with prediction market growth. For DraftKings and FanDuel, every dollar flowing to Kalshi, Polymarket, or Novig comes directly from their handle. The AGA chose to publicize a $40 billion prediction market estimate — larger than its own $29.5 billion sportsbook number — which turns a competitive threat into a political weapon against CFTC-regulated venues.
Sports leagues and state gaming regulators will cite that figure in lobbying to restrict event contracts. The NFL season kickoff is the live test: if prediction market volume meets the AGA's own estimate, the trade group's next report will be lobbying lawmakers, not just issuing forecasts. Platforms now face a public narrative that they are draining taxable betting revenue from state-licensed books.
Novig's $125 million debut and Rotowire's doubled volume forecast for Kalshi and Polymarket leaves the AGA arguing that prediction markets are already eating sportsbooks' lunch.