Casino lobby AGA blames prediction markets for flat sports betting growth
The American Gaming Association (AGA) said the growth of legal sports betting handle has stalled and tied the first flat NFL betting season to the rise of regulated event-contract platforms. The casino industry lobby is pointing to prediction markets and sports event contracts as a factor diverting wagering activity from traditional sportsbooks. The trade group said the widespread launch of what it called backdoor sports betting on prediction markets has contributed to the plateau.
The AGA's public attack turns a private sportsbook grievance into a lobbying weapon with Congressional reach. The trade group speaks for casino giants like MGM and Caesars; its voice carries direct access to state legislators and federal committees already wrestling with the Schiff-Curtis bill. By branding event contracts as backdoor sports betting, the AGA arms state attorneys general who argue CFTC registration is a gambling loophole and pressures the CFTC itself to tighten definitions.
Kalshi and Polymarket built their sports verticals on regulatory distinction; the AGA is spending to erase that line in the public mind and in statute. A federal bill banning sports wagers would make the lobbying moot, but until then each AGA testimony and white paper adds friction to platform expansion. The casino industry's complaint is self-interested, but its data on flat handle is concrete enough to sway undecided lawmakers who do not trade event contracts themselves.
Marks the first major industry group to openly frame CFTC-registered sports contracts as direct gambling competitors, joining the NFL's formal opposition to Kalshi and Polymarket's player and officiating products in a widening campaign to strip these platforms of their regulatory distinction from sportsbooks.