Amazon MGM Studios has tapped acclaimed director Denis Villeneuve to helm the next James Bond film, marking the beginning of a new era for the franchise. Villeneuve’s involvement has reignited excitement around Bond’s future, with many Bond fans turning to Kalshi to place their bets on who will don the tux next.
First introduced in Ian Fleming’s 1953 novel, James Bond has become one of the most enduring action heroes, with actors like Sean Connery, Pierce Brosnan, and most recently, Daniel Craig defining the role. Craig’s Bond era ended in 2021, and ever since, speculation has swirled about who will take up the mantle of 007.
Early odds have Aaron Taylor-Johnson (27%) as the most likely candidate with Aaron Pierre (24%) not far behind. However, there are quite a few long shots who could very well become the new era’s pick for the iconic role.
Who is James Bond, and who owns the James Bond franchise?
Albert R. Broccoli and Harry Saltzman purchased the rights to James Bond in 1961. The two producers then founded Eon Productions, which has since produced 25 James Bond films. Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM) distributed the Bond films since 1981 and Amazon took over in 2022.
In February 2025, it was announced that Amazon would gain creative control of the franchise and co-own the intellectual property rights with longtime producers, Michael G. Wilson and Barbara Broccoli. Essentially, Amazon will now be leading the future of the James Bond franchise.
The James Bond franchise is the fifth-highest-grossing film series, with a global box office gross of $7.8 billion. It makes sense that Amazon would want to co-own this lucrative IP; however, many are worried about where this conglomerate will take the franchise.
With the latest news, everyone is curious to see who Amazon will choose as its leading actor.
How to legally trade on James Bond markets
Thanks to Kalshi, U.S. traders can legally trade on James Bond markets. Kalshi, one of the most popular prediction market platforms, is CFTC-regulated, allowing U.S. users to participate in the predictions.
On Kalshi, you can predict the likelihood of an event happening. You can forecast how likely it is for Richard Madden to become the next 007.
It works fairly simply. Madden is currently sitting at 9% chances of becoming the next 007. If you believe his chances are higher, you can purchase a “yes” share for 8 cents. If you think he has a smaller chance, you can purchase a “no” share for 95 cents.
If you are correct and purchased 100 “yes” shares, you will make a profit of $90.45. Essentially, Kalshi’s prediction markets allow you to make money on your James Bond favorites.
Who will be the next James Bond, based on current odds
As of June 2025, James Bond has yet to be cast. There have been rumors circulating for years about who the top choice or favorite is, but nothing has been officially announced. There is a collection of actors who many believe are the most likely. The market at Kalshi offers actual odds on the most likely actor to play the iconic role.
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
With his chances sitting at 28%, Taylor-Johnson (pictured in lead image) is the current favorite among Kalshi traders. Fans have been speculating about him being the next Bond for many years now. Taylor-Johnson has considerable experience in the action genre, having worked on films such as Kick-Ass and Marvel movies.
Moreover, Taylor-Johnson has announced he is now a brand ambassador for the watch company, OMEGA. This is the watch that every James Bond character has worn since 1995’s GoldenEye.
His most recent partnership is most likely either his team trying to signal to the Amazon team to hire him or the James Bond team teasing that he will be the new lead. Regardless, Taylor-Johnson is the most likely choice for the role of Bond, according to Kalshi’s prediction market, at least at the time of writing.
Aaron Pierre
Another Aaron, and not far behind from Taylor-Johnson, is Aaron Pierre with a 24% chance. Pierre is a newcomer to the conversation, having recently emerged as a candidate for the role. Rumors started once Pierre was reportedly being considered for the role, according to “insider information” from Daniel Richtman.
Pierre is definitely on the rise with recent roles in Rebel Ridge and as Mufasa in Mufasa: The Lion King. He’s also been cast as John Stewart / Green Lantern in the upcoming DC Lanterns television series. Undoubtedly, Pierre starring in another franchise may be something the Bond producers have to consider.
If Pierre were chosen, he would be the first Black Bond. With many rumors about the franchise being reinvented, this is a direction they may go.
Henry Cavill
Henry Cavill is known for two major franchises already – Superman and The Witcher. In both franchises, Cavill was unlucky enough to have his time in the role cut short.
His experience with franchises may be a double-edged sword. On the one hand, he is familiar with large blockbusters and clearly does well in these roles. On the other hand, the Amazon team may want someone who has fewer prominent titles associated with their name.
While Cavill is the third most likely choice on Kalshi, with implied odds of 16%, but appears to be the public’s favorite. In February, Amazon chairman Jeff Bezos tweeted, asking who should be the next James Bond. The responses varied, but an overwhelming number named Cavill for the role, which could have an influence on the Kalshi odds.
Who’d you pick as the next Bond? pic.twitter.com/u7nBaRROlf
— Jeff Bezos (@JeffBezos) February 20, 2025
Richard Madden
Richard Madden definitely has the experience to also become the next Bond. He is known for his roles in Game of Thrones and the hit Netflix series, Bodyguard. In the case of Game of Thrones, he was not the face of the franchise, but he was a beloved character.
In the Netflix series, he walked around in a suit and played a similar role to 007, which clearly displayed that he is capable of playing this kind of character. Shortly after the series was released, the Daily Mail reported that the producers were interested in offering him the 007 role. However, it obviously didn’t happen back then.
Madden has also recently worked with Amazon on the Prime series, Citadel. While the series did not receive positive critical reception, it still received a renewal from the platform. Perhaps, Amazon wouldn’t want to work with Madden on another spy series. For now, his Kalshi odds sit at just 9%.
Damson Idris
Of the six contenders highlighted here, Damson Idris is the most up-and-coming actor. He also has an athletic background, which may be an asset to the producers.
Idris has a significantly shorter filmography than the others under consideration. However, his roles in Snowfall, Black Mirror, and Swarm were well-received.
While he may have lacked experience in a big film, he is about to star opposite Brad Pitt in the movie F1. His performance in that film may sway the new Amazon producers. But similar to Norton, his chances sit relatively low at 9% at time of writing.
James Norton
James Norton has played a wide variety of characters, including a warrior in War and Peace, a priest in Grantchester, and a sociopath in Happy Valley. His versatility may appeal to Amazon producers who want to add more dimensions to the 007 character.
With a low chance of 5% at time of writing, not many believe Norton to be a top contender. However, his lack of big franchises may make him more appealing in the sense that they can work with a blank slate. On the other hand, it may be more challenging for him to bring a larger audience to theaters.
Either way, his low odds offer a potentially big payout if he becomes a true contender or lands the role.
Who will direct the next James Bond movie?
After years of speculation and news about Amazon MGM taking over the franchise, a new James Bond director has finally been chosen. Amazon MGM officially announced Villeneuve as the director of the next James Bond film on June 25.
Villeneuve is a Canadian director best known for his work on films such as Prisoners, Sicario, and, most recently, the Dune movies. He has been nominated four times for an Academy Award but has yet to win one.
With Villeneuve directing and Amazon driving the creative vision, the next chapter of James Bond is set to break new ground. As fans await casting news, Kalshi users are already speculating and hoping to cash in on who will be the next Bond…James Bond.
