Trading Trump’s Takeovers: What World Leaders Will Be Out in 2027?
Presdient Trump’s capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro has stolen the headlines. But Trump has threatened other countries, too. Trump reiterated his wish to take over Greenland on Tuesday. Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed that Trump hoped to buy Greenland instead of taking it over with military force. Trump, however, does not appear to have ruled military force out even after Rubio’s statements.
Kalshi traders give the United States a 42% chance of taking over at least some part of Greenland by Jan. 21, 2029. It’s up from 30% on Jan. 2 as the country and world were finding out about Maduro’s capture.
The success of Operation Absolute Resolve has seemingly emboldened Trump, who had already shown aggressive interesting in taking control of other parts of the world. He has suggested that Canada become the 51st state, although the U.S. only has an 18% chance of taking control of any part of Canada by Jan. 21, 2029.
Other world leaders are in more precarious positions, even without the prospect of U.S. intervention. Traders can buy contracts on whether these leaders will still be in office the end of the year.
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Iranian regime remains fragile
Aside from Peru’s president, who is set to oversee elections in mid-2026 and expected to leave office afterwards, Iran’s Supreme Leader is the most imperiled world leader in Kalshi’s 2027 market.
Iran is facing a wave of protests over economic hardship. The New York Times reported that Iran’s currency has lost half its value and that December’s inflation rate was 42%. The protests have also called for the overthrow of the country’s theocratic regime.
The regime’s instability follows joint strikes on its nuclear facilities by the United States and Israel in June 2025. Militarily vulnerable and facing domestic unrest, Ali Khamenei has a 52% chance of being ousted from power in 2026.
Maduro panic vs. fundamentals
It’s easy to look at the world and see many leaders ripe for toppling or territories the United States can absorb. However, traders must make a crucial decision about the countries’ fates they’re trading on.
Trades on world leaders can’t be made only in reference to Maduro. Some countries can defend themselves more ably than Venezuela. The United States can’t install a new leader in Canada or Greenland the way it can in a vulnerable dictatorship.
Traders must remember to take a country’s fundamentals into account alongside Trump’s impulses and increasing comfort with military action. A country’s overthrow is about more than even the U.S. president’s whims.