Three Companies File to Offer Election ETFs
ETF companies are continuing their push into the prediction market industry.
GraniteShares and Bitwise have joined Roundhill to file with the SEC to offer ETFs based on election contracts. These funds would reward traders based on the 2028 presidential winner and congressional control following the 2026 elections.
These prediction market ETFs join a growing range of single-asset ETFs that multiply the earnings on a single asset. For example, ETFs on Bitcoin’s performance generate gains and losses based on Bitcoin’s price movements. Traders can buy into the ETF instead of buying Bitcoin directly.
Equities trader Joe Saluzzi pointed out that prediction market ETFs are favorable for high-frequency traders, who can take advantage of the volatile price movements to profit. These short-term ETFs are not designed for long-term exposure.
Meanwhile, other prediction market platforms are working to use the forecasting potential instead of creating new speculative instruments.
Metaculus launches private credit prediction contest
Prediction polling platform Metaculus announced its latest forecasting contest on Monday. The company offered $10,000 in prizes for forecasting the economy’s impact on private credit losses, which the company called “one of the most challenging problems in finance.”
2/ The UMI estimates the macroeconomy’s impact on credit losses for unsecured personal loans. Questions cover its six-month trajectory, nationally and by state or subgroup. Your forecasts offer an independent perspective on where consumer credit is heading. pic.twitter.com/MvjbQmnHtP
— Metaculus (@metaculus) February 23, 2026
Metaculus will award $7,500 to the most accurate forecaster and $2,500 across the five best commenters who:
“…will be judged on how clearly and insightfully they reason about the main factors behind their forecasts: what macroeconomic signals they’re watching, what assumptions they’re making, and how they update as new data arrives, as well as any submitted key factors highly rated by the community.”
While Metaculus conducts forecast research, the commercial prediction markets are still fighting against state gaming regulators to offer their sports contracts.
Hearings and state PI splits
Kalshi and Coinbase each have hearings in different states on Tuesday, Feb. 24. Kalshi will argue against Nevada’s attempt to remove its case back to state court, where state gaming regulators are more likely to prevail. Coinbase’s hearing for a preliminary injunction in Illinois will also take place on Tuesday.
Two key court hearings tomorrow in PM lawsuits:
– NV’s emergency motion to remand its civil enforcement action vs. Kalshi to state court will be argued at 9 am PT
– Coinbase’s motion for preliminary injunction vs. Illinois will be heard at 10 am CT
— Daniel Wallach (@WALLACHLEGAL) February 23, 2026
State cases have already led to different outcomes. Kalshi lost preliminary injunction motions in Massachusetts and Nevada but won one in Tennessee. A split at the appellate level could send the question of jurisdiction over sports contracts to the Supreme Court. The most important ruling remains the Third Circuit opinion, which has not yet been written or released.