Thomas Massie Campaign Embraces Prediction Market Odds
Donald Trump’s rally in Kentucky gave Thomas Massie’s campaign a fundraising boost. However, Massie’s campaign turned to prediction markets to show how strong its momentum was.
Massie’s campaign account posted his odds, touting the amount of money the campaign raised after Trump’s visit.
The President’s trip to Kentucky generated a fundraising record — we received $109,388 online in just 2 days!
Woke Eddie’s squeaky speaking debut boosted me in the online prediction markets as well.
Donate here to show your appreciation for the rally! https://t.co/AgJY01IWPL pic.twitter.com/62swsZ364s
— Thomas Massie for Congress (@MassieforKY) March 13, 2026
Massie’s campaign also attributed his rise in odds from 53% to 67% to his opponent’s speaking performance.
It’s not clear which specific factors led to his improved prediction market odds. But Massie’s is the latest campaign to demonstrate the strength of their campaigns through prediction markets. Eric Swalwell, Zohran Mamdani, and Ritchie Torres have all nodded toward prediction markets’ forecasting abilities.
One candidate appears to have tried to manipulate his own odds to give the illusion of momentum.
Fishback’s apparent market manipulation attempt
On Thursday, James Fishback’s odds to be the Republican nominee in Florida’s gubernatorial race spiked from 11% to 27% before falling back to 10%. All of these price movements happened over about three hours.
The James Fishback influencers try again to pump prediction markets to paint a narrative (that isn’t reality), this time on Polymarket,
Where someone, likely affiliated with Fishback, bought him up to 37%, paid @AFpost to tweet about it, so that @j_fishback could post this https://t.co/WbrRh9v5mh pic.twitter.com/q4R0IjSl1p
— Benjamin Freeman (@benwfreeman1) March 12, 2026
Shortly afterwards, an America First account posted a story about Fishback’s increased odds on X, which Fishback reposted himself.
The Fishback episode is similar to a previous market manipulation attempt among certain Polymarket traders. A small group of traders tried to convince users to buy “Yes” contracts for Judy Shelton to become Trump’s Fed Chair nominee, well after Kevin Warsch’s nomination was announced.
The small group spread rumors that Trump would switch the nomination at the last minute. These traders would have taken the “No” position on Shelton while profiting from the incorrect “Yes” holders.
These attempts haven’t changed the value of contracts for more than a few hours. However, they reveal the value of KYC protocols that can identify prohibited traders, even after the fact, and impose fines to prevent these spikes from being profitable.
Meanwhile, the regulated prediction market industry is in new legal battles with new states.
Arizona lawsuit and new Nevada motions
Kalshi sued Arizona gaming regulators on Friday. The exchange was worried about enforcement action from Arizona regulators regarding Kalshi’s sports contracts. Kalshi is expected to file a motion for a temporary restraining order on Friday evening as well.
Kalshi has also filed an emergency motion for a stay pending appeal after the Ninth Circuit sent Kalshi’s case back to Nevada state court.